I’ll be looking for two things: first, the
extent to which Donald Trump tries to reassure white college educated
voters that he has what it takes to be president and second, how much
Hillary Clinton tailors her responses to the concerns of younger
voters. These are the voters that Trump and Clinton need, respectively,
to win on November 8, and right now, that support is soft. While Trump
is polling strongly among non-college educated whites, when it comes to
college educated whites he’s lagging behind where Mitt Romney was four
years ago. It’s hard to see how he wins if he doesn’t increase his
share of this vote. Meanwhile, Clinton has yet to fully connect with
younger voters and especially, those who cast their votes for Bernie
Sanders in the Democratic primaries. She needs these millennial voters
to win the presidency. In short, the first job for both Clinton and
Trump is to shore up their political base. Tonight’s debate can help up
to a point.
How much impact do you think the debate will have on the race?
Historically, presidential debates do not
move the needle very much, but in a tight race like this one is shaping
up to be, it could make all the difference. For both candidates the key
is connecting to those voters who are nominally Democratic or
Republican, but are not yet fully behind their party’s nominee. In
Clinton’s case, again, that means younger Democratic voters who are
looking for a positive, affirming reason to vote for her. For Trump, it
is college educated Republicans who are not yet convinced that he is
made of presidential timber. These are the voters that right now fall
into the ‘undecided’ category. These are the ones who are in play
tonight. Bottom line: what Clinton and Trump say and how they comport
themselves tonight matters, if only at the margins.
What are you looking for in tonight’s debate?
I’ll be looking for two things: first, the
extent to which Donald Trump tries to reassure white college educated
voters that he has what it takes to be president and second, how much
Hillary Clinton tailors her responses to the concerns of younger
voters. These are the voters that Trump and Clinton need, respectively,
to win on November 8, and right now, that support is soft. While Trump
is polling strongly among non-college educated whites, when it comes to
college educated whites he’s lagging behind where Mitt Romney was four
years ago. It’s hard to see how he wins if he doesn’t increase his
share of this vote. Meanwhile, Clinton has yet to fully connect with
younger voters and especially, those who cast their votes for Bernie
Sanders in the Democratic primaries. She needs these millennial voters
to win the presidency. In short, the first job for both Clinton and
Trump is to shore up their political base. Tonight’s debate can help up
to a point.
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