What is expected tonight’s presidential debate

I’ll be looking for two things: first, the extent to which Donald Trump tries to reassure white college educated voters that he has what it takes to be president and second, how much Hillary Clinton tailors her responses to the concerns of younger voters.  These are the voters that Trump and Clinton need, respectively, to win on November 8, and right now, that support is soft.  While Trump is polling strongly among non-college educated whites, when it comes to college educated whites he’s lagging behind where Mitt Romney was four years ago.  It’s hard to see how he wins if he doesn’t increase his share of this vote.  Meanwhile, Clinton has yet to fully connect with younger voters and especially, those who cast their votes for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries.  She needs these millennial voters to win the presidency. In short, the first job for both Clinton and Trump is to shore up their political base. Tonight’s debate can help up to a point.

How much impact do you think the debate will have on the race?

Historically, presidential debates do not move the needle very much, but in a tight race like this one is shaping up to be, it could make all the difference.  For both candidates the key is connecting to those voters who are nominally Democratic or Republican, but are not yet fully behind their party’s nominee.  In Clinton’s case, again, that means younger Democratic voters who are looking for a positive, affirming reason to vote for her.  For Trump, it is college educated Republicans who are not yet convinced that he is made of presidential timber.  These are the voters that right now fall into the ‘undecided’ category. These are the ones who are in play tonight.  Bottom line: what Clinton and Trump say and how they comport themselves tonight matters, if only at the margins.

What are you looking for in tonight’s debate?

I’ll be looking for two things: first, the extent to which Donald Trump tries to reassure white college educated voters that he has what it takes to be president and second, how much Hillary Clinton tailors her responses to the concerns of younger voters.  These are the voters that Trump and Clinton need, respectively, to win on November 8, and right now, that support is soft.  While Trump is polling strongly among non-college educated whites, when it comes to college educated whites he’s lagging behind where Mitt Romney was four years ago.  It’s hard to see how he wins if he doesn’t increase his share of this vote.  Meanwhile, Clinton has yet to fully connect with younger voters and especially, those who cast their votes for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries.  She needs these millennial voters to win the presidency. In short, the first job for both Clinton and Trump is to shore up their political base. Tonight’s debate can help up to a point.
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