Mike Pence could bring to a Donald Trump ticket?

If the rumors are true, it looks like Governor Mike Pence of Indiana is emerging as a likely VP candidate for Donald Trump.

Pence is an experienced politician with strong conservative bona fides, which makes for a stark contrast with the mercurial Trump — though bringing balance to the ticket may be part of the point.

It helps, too, that Pence is well-liked inside Washington, D.C., and well-connected with Republican donors.

Even so, it’s not clear that Pence will actually lift Trump’s electoral chances. VPs rarely do, and Pence lacks the kind of national profile that would readily enable him to win hearts, minds, and votes.

Who’s Mike Pence?

He is the 57-year old sitting governor of Indiana and a long-serving congressmen with hard-line, tea party views.

A lawyer by training, Pence has worked in private practice, served as President of a right-leaning think tank, and hosted a show on talk radio.

Throughout his political life, Pence has remained a reliable conservative: staunchly pro-life, with a long record of opposing gun control as well as same-sex marriage. In Congress, he amassed a voting record slightly to the right of Paul Ryan and well right of then-speaker John Boehner, according to the DW-NOMINATE rating system.

Somewhat awkwardly, Pence actually endorsed Ted Cruz during this year’s Republican primary. But since he never directly attacked Trump, that crack will probably get painted over.

Harder to hide is the fact that the two stand on opposite sides of one of Trump’s signature issues. Pence has been a major proponent of free trade, whereas Trump has roundly and regularly criticized America’s trade pacts as foolish giveaways in need of renegotiation.

What strengths does Pence bring to the Trump ticket?

A steady demeanor, real experience in government, and an unasssailable record as a reliable, social conservative. Those qualities could tighten up support on Trum’s right flank, though polls suggest he’s already doing quite well among conservative voters.

Perhaps more important, Pence has good relationships with top Washington Republicans, not to mention leading Republican donors, including the deep-pocketed network overseen by the Koch brothers.

To now, those groups have been slow to join the Trump bandwagon (the Koch’s have even flirted with supporting Hillary Clinton.) With Pence’s help, Trump may be able to overcome his early fundraising shortfalls, expand his base of insider support, and bring new resources to the campaign.

Pence, Pence...why do I know that name?

Even if you’re not a political junkie, you may remember Pence from last year’s high-profile fight over Indiana’s so-called “religious-freedom-law,” a fight that’s since been replicated in other states, including North Carolina.

Pence signed a bill which he said was meant to protect people’s religious convictions. Opponents, however, worried that it was really a screen for discrimination, letting Indiana business owners refuse service to gay couples, for instance.

Around the country there were calls to boycott Indiana, including open opposition from major corporations like Apple and NASCAR.

Eventually Pence signed a revised version of the law, making clear that discrimination would not be tolerated. In doing so, however, he managed to alienate both sides: liberal groups outraged by the initial effort and the conservative groups disappointed by the revision.

This may be Pence’s biggest drawback as a VP candidate. He’s a lightning rod, a social conservative in an era when social conservatism is in retreat, following last year’s supreme court decision enshrining gay marriage and last month’s decision reaffirming abortion rights.

Will Pence have to step down as Governor?

Under Indiana law, Pence can’t serve as governor while running for VP so he’ll have to resign — and fairly quickly.

But there’s a decent chance his time as governor would have ended anyway. Pence is (or was) in the middle of a very tight re-election fight, which could easily have broken his hold on the governor’s office.

How much will Pence really help Trump?

Probably not much — but that’s not necessarily a knock on Pence. Most research suggests that VP picks just don’t make much of a difference. A bad pick can hurt, but even a brilliant selection doesn’t swing the results.

And while it’s true that there’s one possible exception to this rule — VPs can sometimes provide a home state bounce — Trump was already set to win Pence’s home state by a fairly solid margin.

At the end of the season, it’s unlikely that we’ll look back on Pence as a game-changing choice. But there’s also no reason to think it’s a tragic error. Pence is a perfectly conventional choice--which wouldn’t be news except for the fact that Trump is a far-from-conventional candidate.